Guarding Rwanda’s Sovereignty: Lake Kivu Oil and the Threat of External Economic Intervention.
The
discovery of oil in Lake Kivu heralds a transformative moment for Rwanda,
offering an unprecedented pathway toward economic advancement and energy
self-sufficiency. Yet, this milestone brings with it complex challenges rooted
in geopolitics and global power dynamics. As the Rwanda Mines, Petroleum, and
Gas Board (RMB) unveils the hydrocarbon potential of Lake Kivu, the prospect of
international interest looms large—raising concerns about the intentions of
foreign powers, particularly under the guise of “humanitarian intervention.” Drawing
lessons from Dan Kovalik’s No More War, which critiques the West's historical
tendency to cloak economic and strategic motives in the language of democracy
and human rights, Rwanda faces a moment of reckoning. Will the Lake Kivu oil
reserves propel the nation toward equitable development and global
partnerships, or will they expose it to the risks of external interference and
exploitation? Rwanda must tread carefully, leveraging its sovereignty, robust
legal frameworks, and strategic diplomacy to ensure its natural resources serve
its people, rather than becoming a catalyst for destabilization.
The
Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board, published an update on the oil and gas
exploration in Lake Kivu. On January 15, 2025, the Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and
Gas Board (RMB) announced significant progress in the exploration of oil and
gas within Lake Kivu, a key part of the vast Eastern African Rift Valley
system. Between 2021 and 2022, RMB conducted a comprehensive 2D Seismic Survey,
which unveiled Lake Kivu’s potential as a hydrocarbon resource hub. The survey
findings were remarkable, revealing a basin with a depth of around 3.5
kilometers that shows promising signs of hydrocarbon presence. Moreover, the
study identified 13 structural pockets and prospective drilling locations,
marking critical steps toward confirming the existence and composition of these
resources. Encouraged by these results, RMB is actively seeking partnerships
with industry players to advance into the next phases of exploration,
development, and eventual production of oil and gas in the Lake Kivu basin.
This milestone represents an exciting opportunity for collaboration and
innovation in Rwanda’s energy sector.[1]
Article
4 of the constitution of Rwanda stipulates that; The Rwandan State is an independent,
sovereign, democratic, social and secular Republic.[2] With the Rwanda Defence
Force whose mission as provided by the law is to defend the territorial
integrity and the national sovereignty of the Republic[3], this only gives the
assurance that the Rwandan natural resources will be at the use and benefit Rwandans
while they are protected from external interference for destabilizing the
country for their personal interest at it happened in different countries.
While
safeguarding the sovereignty and ensuring international cooperation, Rwanda through
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, insures dynamic
and effective diplomacy. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International
Cooperation promotes and defends the interests of Rwanda and Rwandans at home
and abroad, coordinate the country's foreign policy and contribute to a just,
safe and progressive world.[4] Not only safeguarding
Rwanda’s sovereignty, the government of Rwanda is also ready for cooperation.
Rwanda makes sure that it is a country open for business, this means that tricks
for manipulations and causing chaos for economic interests gains won’t be
possible.
Looking
at Dan Kovalik’s No More War a book which is a compelling critique of the
Western world’s approach to international conflict. The book delves into how
powerful nations, especially the United States, repeatedly violate
international law under the pretext of humanitarian intervention. Kovalik
highlights a disturbing pattern: interventions justified as protecting human
rights often lead to chaos, suffering, and the violation of the very rights
they claim to defend. At the heart of his argument is the notion that these
actions are not truly humanitarian. Instead, they are driven by economic
interests, such as securing valuable resources, and by strategic goals aimed at
maintaining global dominance. Kovalik brings attention to cases like Iraq,
Libya, and Syria, where military actions led to widespread devastation,
destabilization, and long-term suffering for local populations.[5]
Lessons
from Libya as the victim of foreign policy and economic development relying on
oil
Libya’s
journey from an oil-rich nation to one torn apart by conflict is deeply
intertwined with global power struggles, foreign interventions, and the
pursuit of economic interests. In the 1970s, Libya’s oil industry was dominated
by American companies, but after the 1969 coup, the government took steps to
nationalize its oil resources, asserting control over this valuable commodity.
This shift threatened the balance of global oil markets, particularly for
Western powers. Despite the U.S. relying minimally on Libyan oil, it still
valued the resource for blending purposes and feared disruptions to its
production. However, it wasn’t until the 2011 NATO intervention, led by the
Obama administration, that Libya’s fate was dramatically altered. Framed as a
humanitarian mission to protect civilians, the intervention aimed at toppling
the Gaddafi regime quickly spiraled into chaos. The removal of Gaddafi, instead
of ushering in stability, led to a prolonged civil war, as Libya’s tribal
divisions and political rivalries fueled a bloody conflict. Foreign powers,
including the U.S., Russia, Turkey, and several European nations, became
embroiled in a proxy war, each pursuing their own geopolitical and economic
agendas. The aftermath has been devastating—thousands of lives lost, millions
displaced, and the country fractured beyond recognition. The intervention, once
touted as a mission to protect, has instead left a legacy of destruction,
reminding the world of the dangerous consequences of masking economic ambitions
under the guise of humanitarian aid.
The United States' reliance on oil
has significantly shaped its foreign policy and economic development. USA oil history spans three key
phases: its emergence as a commodity in the mid-19th century, the geopolitical
competition of the post–World War II era, and the deregulation and
diversification of the post–Cold War period. The Industrial Revolution,
initially powered by coal, saw crude oil rise as an alternative energy source
in the mid-1800s. Kerosene, derived from refined crude oil, replaced whale oil
for lighting, while advances in drilling in Pennsylvania in 1859 ignited a
surge in oil production. The first U.S. refinery was established in 1861,
followed by the country's first export of refined oil. Over the next 150 years,
oil overtook coal as the primary energy source, bolstering the U.S.'s economic
strength. Today, as domestic oil production thrives, attention turns to
balancing this growth with global efforts to combat climate change.[6]
Libyan
oil’s strategic importance to Europe declined after 1969 but remained
significant for countries like Germany, Italy, and the UK. The US relied
minimally on Libyan oil (less than 3% of imports) but valued it for blending to
meet environmental standards. Disruptions to Libya’s 2.3 million barrels per
day production would strain global markets. For the US, Libya was important due
to $409 million in repatriated profits in 1972 and the potential impact of
Libyan nationalizations on broader OPEC agreements. Negotiations between the
LARG and US oil companies were tense, with Libya seeking control while US
companies, divided in strategy, aimed to protect interests. Libya’s assertive
policies risked destabilizing global oil dynamics.[7]
The
story of Libya's destruction begins with the Obama administration's 2011
intervention, driven by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's push for
regime change. Framed as a humanitarian mission to prevent civilian casualties,
the U.S.-led NATO campaign toppled Moammar Gaddafi, a dictator who had ruled
Libya with an iron fist for decades. However, his removal unleashed chaos
rather than stability. What followed was a descent into prolonged civil war.
Libya’s tribal divisions, political rivalries, and the meddling of foreign
powers turned the country into a battleground. On one side stands the
Government of National Accord (GNA), a weak UN-backed coalition, and on the
other, General Khalifa Haftar, a former Gaddafi ally with the backing of
several nations, including Russia and Egypt. Outside actors such as Turkey,
France, and the UAE have escalated the conflict, turning Libya into a proxy war
fueled by foreign ambitions.[8]
The
war has devastated Libya's people. Tens of thousands have died, millions have
been displaced, and hopes for a peaceful future have withered. Islamist groups
and terrorists, including ISIS, have exploited the turmoil, adding to the
suffering. Despite official condemnation of foreign interference, hypocrisy
abounds. The very nations calling for peace are deeply involved in the
conflict, using Libya as a chessboard for their geopolitical aims. Meanwhile,
the U.S., having abandoned any coherent strategy, has oscillated between
recognizing the GNA and engaging with Haftar. For Libyans, the promise of
liberation has turned into a nightmare of instability and violence. The Obama
administration may not have intended to wreck Libya for a generation, but its
decision to intervene, driven by overconfidence in military solutions, has left
an enduring legacy of destruction. This tale serves as a sobering reminder of
the far-reaching costs of ill-considered war-making.[9]
In
the shadow of Libya's chaos, a deeper story unfolds—one of intentions veiled by
diplomacy[10]
and actions that tell a different tale. It was 2011, and the world watched as
Muammar Gaddafi’s regime faced the waves of rebellion ignited by the Arab
Spring. The Obama administration declared its mission clearly: protect
civilians, establish a no-fly zone, and adhere strictly to the UN Security
Council’s resolutions. But beneath the surface of these statements lay a far
more ambitious plan. As the first Tomahawk missiles screamed through the
Mediterranean skies, striking Gaddafi’s compound, the narrative of limited
intervention began to unravel. Official statements denied targeting the
dictator, yet the precision of these attacks suggested otherwise. Early and
often, the coalition employed decapitation strikes, hoping to dismantle the
regime’s leadership under the thin veneer of humanitarian aid.
Rwanda
can learn vital lessons from Libya’s experience with foreign intervention and
oil dependence. To avoid the same pitfalls, Rwanda should prioritize
sovereignty, ensuring full control over its oil resources and preventing
external manipulation. It must be cautious of foreign interventions, which can
disguise ulterior motives under humanitarian aid and result in unintended
consequences, as seen in Libya. Diversifying international partnerships will
safeguard against geopolitical manipulation and foster strategic leverage.
Establishing a strong legal framework for the oil sector is essential for
transparency, fair practices, and preventing corruption. Rwanda should also
avoid over-reliance on oil, focusing on long-term development by diversifying
its economy and ensuring sustainable growth. Lastly, Rwanda must navigate the
geopolitical landscape carefully to avoid becoming a pawn in global power
struggles. By following these principles, Rwanda can use its oil wealth
responsibly, maintaining sovereignty, fostering economic growth, and protecting
national interests from foreign exploitation and conflict.
Rwanda’s
experience in protecting rich oil zones
Back
in 2021 at the request of Mozambique, Rwanda deployed a 1,000-member contingent
of the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and Rwanda National Police (RNP) to Cabo
Delgado Province to address terrorism and insecurity. The Joint Force, led by
Maj Gen Innocent Kabandana, collaborated with Mozambique’s Armed Defence Forces
(FADM) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces in their
assigned areas of operation. The Rwandan forces aim to restore state authority
by conducting combat and security operations while also supporting
stabilization and security-sector reforms. During a briefing, RDF Army Chief of
Staff Lt Gen Mubarakh Muganga emphasized the importance of upholding RDF
values, such as discipline, patriotism, and integrity, while maintaining
Rwanda's good reputation through exceptional performance. This deployment
reflects the strong bilateral ties between Rwanda and Mozambique, established
through agreements signed in 2018. It also aligns with Rwanda’s commitment to
the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine and the 2015 Kigali Principles on
the Protection of Civilians.[11]
In
2024, Rwanda has sent an additional 2,000 soldiers to Mozambique to address
escalating violence linked to Islamic State militants in Cabo Delgado province.
This unrest has stalled a $20 billion natural gas project by TotalEnergies SE
for three years. The deployment increases Rwanda's forces in the region to over
4,500, complementing troops and police already stationed there since 2021. The
violence has intensified this year, raising security concerns as TotalEnergies
considers restarting its project. ExxonMobil’s adjacent LNG project is also on
hold. According to Rwanda Defence Force spokesman Ronald Rwivanga, the
reinforcements aim to expand operational coverage and improve effectiveness,
not to replace regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) troops
set to exit by mid-July. Rwandan forces have been instrumental in countering
militants, including clearing Palma after a deadly attack in 2021.[12]
Conclusion
The
discovery of oil in Lake Kivu offers Rwanda a pivotal opportunity for economic
growth and energy independence, but it also exposes the country to potential
external economic and political interference. Drawing on the lessons from past
foreign interventions, especially the destructive consequences seen in Libya,
Rwanda must remain vigilant in protecting its sovereignty. It is crucial that
the country safeguards control over its oil resources, resists foreign
manipulations disguised as humanitarian efforts, and diversifies its economy to
avoid over-reliance on oil. By adhering to a strong legal framework and
fostering transparent, fair international partnerships, Rwanda can navigate
this opportunity responsibly, ensuring long-term prosperity without compromising
its independence.
[1] https://www.rmb.gov.rw/index.php?eID=dumpFile&t=f&f=115823&token=ba42e8820cb147cbf29dc4ef8de830efd5c0b770
[2] Official
Gazette n° Special of 04/08/2023, CONSTITUTION OF THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA,
article 4
[3] https://www.mod.gov.rw/index.php?eID=dumpFile&t=f&f=105206&token=424fbc7737a2751e768502d742b3693e37063825
[9] IDEM
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